OneGreenChip

cross posted from 2+2: Random guy is talking about a live 2/5 hand.


...I just sat down on table no reads on anyone and noone has reads on me hasnt even been 1 orbit.

Hero Button (300) A7s
Villain UTG+1 (650)

Villain raises UTG+1 to $20 (on previous hands I seen him raise to $40 and $35) 3 callers in front of me. I call, SB and BB call. (Pot $147). How many of you guys fold with A7s preflop?

my answer:

firstly, let's look at the types of flops that help us. We want a flop that helps us VS the possible range of hands he has {AA-TT, AK, AQ} = supernitty, I know, but whatever...

-flushed flop (probability=0.8% = 11/50*10/49*9/48)
-77x flop (probability=0.2% = 2/50*1/49)
-A7x flop (probability=0.4%) = 2/50*2/49)
-I'm purposely discounting a 2-flushed board, as we complete our hand sometimes and not others and it muddies the discussion.

total probability for A Flop That Helps Us: (1.4%)

THEREFORE, those flops don't happen nearly often enough. Now, if he had 1000bb....sure, make the call, as it's an insignificant % of his stack that approaches the % of time that one of these flops happens. However, this is not the case. He's calling on this flop with about 7% of his stack, and the above cases happen less than 7% of the time, making this a losing play.

This is the big trap of implied odds hands. Most of us understand "AXs!! so easy to get away from if I don't flop big! I CAWL!" never realizing how the formula works:

you have to win enough the times you DO hit to make all the other times worthwhile.

With 60bb, you don't have enough in your stack. You simply can't win enough with that stack size to balance out all the many times you'll be folding otherwise.