Thursday, August 19, 2010
The Problem with Implied Odds
cross posted from 2+2: Random guy is talking about a live 2/5 hand.
...I just sat down on table no reads on anyone and noone has reads on me hasnt even been 1 orbit.
Hero Button (300) A7s
Villain UTG+1 (650)
Villain raises UTG+1 to $20 (on previous hands I seen him raise to $40 and $35) 3 callers in front of me. I call, SB and BB call. (Pot $147). How many of you guys fold with A7s preflop?
my answer:
firstly, let's look at the types of flops that help us. We want a flop that helps us VS the possible range of hands he has {AA-TT, AK, AQ} = supernitty, I know, but whatever...
-flushed flop (probability=0.8% = 11/50*10/49*9/48)
-77x flop (probability=0.2% = 2/50*1/49)
-A7x flop (probability=0.4%) = 2/50*2/49)
-I'm purposely discounting a 2-flushed board, as we complete our hand sometimes and not others and it muddies the discussion.
total probability for A Flop That Helps Us: (1.4%)
THEREFORE, those flops don't happen nearly often enough. Now, if he had 1000bb....sure, make the call, as it's an insignificant % of his stack that approaches the % of time that one of these flops happens. However, this is not the case. He's calling on this flop with about 7% of his stack, and the above cases happen less than 7% of the time, making this a losing play.
This is the big trap of implied odds hands. Most of us understand "AXs!! so easy to get away from if I don't flop big! I CAWL!" never realizing how the formula works:
you have to win enough the times you DO hit to make all the other times worthwhile.
With 60bb, you don't have enough in your stack. You simply can't win enough with that stack size to balance out all the many times you'll be folding otherwise.
...I just sat down on table no reads on anyone and noone has reads on me hasnt even been 1 orbit.
Hero Button (300) A7s
Villain UTG+1 (650)
Villain raises UTG+1 to $20 (on previous hands I seen him raise to $40 and $35) 3 callers in front of me. I call, SB and BB call. (Pot $147). How many of you guys fold with A7s preflop?
my answer:
firstly, let's look at the types of flops that help us. We want a flop that helps us VS the possible range of hands he has {AA-TT, AK, AQ} = supernitty, I know, but whatever...
-flushed flop (probability=0.8% = 11/50*10/49*9/48)
-77x flop (probability=0.2% = 2/50*1/49)
-A7x flop (probability=0.4%) = 2/50*2/49)
-I'm purposely discounting a 2-flushed board, as we complete our hand sometimes and not others and it muddies the discussion.
total probability for A Flop That Helps Us: (1.4%)
THEREFORE, those flops don't happen nearly often enough. Now, if he had 1000bb....sure, make the call, as it's an insignificant % of his stack that approaches the % of time that one of these flops happens. However, this is not the case. He's calling on this flop with about 7% of his stack, and the above cases happen less than 7% of the time, making this a losing play.
This is the big trap of implied odds hands. Most of us understand "AXs!! so easy to get away from if I don't flop big! I CAWL!" never realizing how the formula works:
you have to win enough the times you DO hit to make all the other times worthwhile.
With 60bb, you don't have enough in your stack. You simply can't win enough with that stack size to balance out all the many times you'll be folding otherwise.
Monday, July 26, 2010
The Last Hands of Vegas
So Josh left the Aria, and I continued to run $600 into $1300. Got some pho, sat down at the Hard Rock at midnight, and just cashed out for $1500.
The session involved Digs and I cracking jokes, and giving each other a TON of action and showing all our big bluffs. We were seated in #5 and #10; where we could do the least damage positionally to the other.
Table's response was interesting -- the 4 on my left were all about 100bb deep, tightened up, and played super ABC. I responded by widening my 3betting range and limp/rr range, and kept my 3bet-calling range super tight and always watching for odds. Results from that side of the table were optimal, both Mike and I bled them dry, winning the majority of the small/medium pots while they waited for a haymaker hand to drill us with.
The players on my right were looser, deeper, and more aggressive, but I had positional on FullTilt (online wonderkind LAG) and Chicago (increasingly drunk 28 year old trader, aggrodonkey).
Two hands of note:
I have $600 in front of me, Chicago covers. He's watched us 3bet bluff 72o and laugh about it and is feeling decidely less macho, so he's compensated by never folding preflop. Ever. Because his ego won't let him -- he's a trader and makes in 5 minutes what these poker players are throwigg around, goddammit!
EP villain raises to 10, one caller, Chicago calls with an 800 stack, FullTilt calls. Sitting on a $600 stack, I see 97o. Do I call and see a pot multiple ways, or do I 3bet to 55 and either a) take it down b) iso Chicago while keeping my 3betting frequency high? 3betting gives me more options, as I have the button. 97s I probably flat behind more as it flops better.
Chicago calls. Pot: ~160, we each have about 525 left.
Flop: T86r. Thank you God. He leads for 60, I think about it, and call. Don't pair, board. Pot is 280, 465 remaining.
Turn: 7x, he checks, I bet 125, he calls. Pot is 430, 340 remaining. We are committed!
River: 9x. He open-jams. I panic, and frantically go over the action to see if he could have a J. How? HOW?! How could that fucking river come? I call, table my hand, and say "I flopped it"
He is in shock and shuffles his cards. The entire table is caught up in the spectacle of two big stacks colliding with the flopped nuts getting split, so they were too slow to react when he slowly
Mucks
His
Hand.
It hits the muck and the dealer buries the hand as the tight players jump up shrieking, desperate to keep the money in the hands of the donkey, but it's too late and the dealer awards me the monster pot.
Epilogue: i've been chatting with the guy for the last two hours. I know his name, where he went to school, his job, and his girlfriends name. Not once has he reciprocated. So when he asks me, "dude, is this really going down like that?it should have been split," I reply: well, Darryl the stock options trader from Chicago, you did suck out on me for a split, but I had you the whole way, and you're the one who messed up, not me. But I don't think this is right, so I'll rebate you $300 (the dealer interrupts me to tell us that this was not allowable), if you can tell me what name is, or what my job is, or anything about me except for the fact I'm from Dallas. I'm not giving free money to a guy who doesn't even know who I am."
He blurts out, "you're Michael!" and I toss him my ID and lol.
Ship it.
The last hand of the night. I'm about 1100 deep at this point, and have been using position to crush FullTilt. His stack has dwindled from 900 to 450 or so, and he's clearly on tilt, making terrible hero calls with ace-high and second pair.
We're 5-handed and I'm playing hyperloose and aggro. He's still tilting, still losing, but open limps on the button. I find black ducks in the SB and raise to 15. He comes to life and 3bets me to 45! Effective stacks are 450. I have 3bet liberally but I have 4bet one other time only. 4betting to 90ish would build a 180 pot with 360 behind, which isn't what I want to do with a sm PP, but he folds some percentage of the time, and when he does call, it'll be with a supertight range and he'll lose the lead in the hand. Bam. He calls quickly with a a twist in his mouth, like he'd bitten into something bitter.
Flop: 8d 2d 8h
What would I do with a bluff? He's a second level thinker, and I've got him on QQ,JJ, or AKs, AA or KK possible but less likely due to my read on his mouth.
Less than a second passes, before I throw 6 hundos into the middle and announce all-in. He thinks for 5 seconds, announces a call, shows QQ, and turns white. Everybody else (how can you raise to 90 with 22) starts yelling and he staggers out shellshocked.
I announce that I'm not interested in playing 4 handed and the table starts whining how can you leave you just won all that money....
And I make the best decision yet at the table and rack em up at 8am. Mission accomplished.
- Colin
The session involved Digs and I cracking jokes, and giving each other a TON of action and showing all our big bluffs. We were seated in #5 and #10; where we could do the least damage positionally to the other.
Table's response was interesting -- the 4 on my left were all about 100bb deep, tightened up, and played super ABC. I responded by widening my 3betting range and limp/rr range, and kept my 3bet-calling range super tight and always watching for odds. Results from that side of the table were optimal, both Mike and I bled them dry, winning the majority of the small/medium pots while they waited for a haymaker hand to drill us with.
The players on my right were looser, deeper, and more aggressive, but I had positional on FullTilt (online wonderkind LAG) and Chicago (increasingly drunk 28 year old trader, aggrodonkey).
Two hands of note:
I have $600 in front of me, Chicago covers. He's watched us 3bet bluff 72o and laugh about it and is feeling decidely less macho, so he's compensated by never folding preflop. Ever. Because his ego won't let him -- he's a trader and makes in 5 minutes what these poker players are throwigg around, goddammit!
EP villain raises to 10, one caller, Chicago calls with an 800 stack, FullTilt calls. Sitting on a $600 stack, I see 97o. Do I call and see a pot multiple ways, or do I 3bet to 55 and either a) take it down b) iso Chicago while keeping my 3betting frequency high? 3betting gives me more options, as I have the button. 97s I probably flat behind more as it flops better.
Chicago calls. Pot: ~160, we each have about 525 left.
Flop: T86r. Thank you God. He leads for 60, I think about it, and call. Don't pair, board. Pot is 280, 465 remaining.
Turn: 7x, he checks, I bet 125, he calls. Pot is 430, 340 remaining. We are committed!
River: 9x. He open-jams. I panic, and frantically go over the action to see if he could have a J. How? HOW?! How could that fucking river come? I call, table my hand, and say "I flopped it"
He is in shock and shuffles his cards. The entire table is caught up in the spectacle of two big stacks colliding with the flopped nuts getting split, so they were too slow to react when he slowly
Mucks
His
Hand.
It hits the muck and the dealer buries the hand as the tight players jump up shrieking, desperate to keep the money in the hands of the donkey, but it's too late and the dealer awards me the monster pot.
Epilogue: i've been chatting with the guy for the last two hours. I know his name, where he went to school, his job, and his girlfriends name. Not once has he reciprocated. So when he asks me, "dude, is this really going down like that?it should have been split," I reply: well, Darryl the stock options trader from Chicago, you did suck out on me for a split, but I had you the whole way, and you're the one who messed up, not me. But I don't think this is right, so I'll rebate you $300 (the dealer interrupts me to tell us that this was not allowable), if you can tell me what name is, or what my job is, or anything about me except for the fact I'm from Dallas. I'm not giving free money to a guy who doesn't even know who I am."
He blurts out, "you're Michael!" and I toss him my ID and lol.
Ship it.
The last hand of the night. I'm about 1100 deep at this point, and have been using position to crush FullTilt. His stack has dwindled from 900 to 450 or so, and he's clearly on tilt, making terrible hero calls with ace-high and second pair.
We're 5-handed and I'm playing hyperloose and aggro. He's still tilting, still losing, but open limps on the button. I find black ducks in the SB and raise to 15. He comes to life and 3bets me to 45! Effective stacks are 450. I have 3bet liberally but I have 4bet one other time only. 4betting to 90ish would build a 180 pot with 360 behind, which isn't what I want to do with a sm PP, but he folds some percentage of the time, and when he does call, it'll be with a supertight range and he'll lose the lead in the hand. Bam. He calls quickly with a a twist in his mouth, like he'd bitten into something bitter.
Flop: 8d 2d 8h
What would I do with a bluff? He's a second level thinker, and I've got him on QQ,JJ, or AKs, AA or KK possible but less likely due to my read on his mouth.
Less than a second passes, before I throw 6 hundos into the middle and announce all-in. He thinks for 5 seconds, announces a call, shows QQ, and turns white. Everybody else (how can you raise to 90 with 22) starts yelling and he staggers out shellshocked.
I announce that I'm not interested in playing 4 handed and the table starts whining how can you leave you just won all that money....
And I make the best decision yet at the table and rack em up at 8am. Mission accomplished.
- Colin
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Interesting Hand?
Late night 1/2nl at the Winstar. Hero is armed with a $275 stack and a loose aggressive image.
Preflop, 7-handed:
3 limps to Hero, on button, who raises to $12 with 79hh. SB, tired and whining, pushes all in for $25. I go to autofold, but the MP1 limper cold-calls, as does the MP2 limper. As they both cover me, and neither fold preflop (why did I raise again?), I call.
Flop: Ks 7s 3c (~$100 in the pot, effective stacks $250). It checks to me. While weak kings are of course in both MPs' ranges, they won't fold them here. I can't bet middle pair for value, and no better hands are folding (maybe 88/99/TT?) so I elect to check behind.
Turn: 6c. MP1 comes alive and bets $40 at the pot. MP2 instajams all in for $125. While I think MP1 has me beat, he shouldn't be strong if he checked the flop out of position, and he'll have to be REALLY strong to call an all-in by me with two other all-ins already in the pot. MP2's play isn't terrifying: earlier play by him has convinced me that most of his range here consists of strong draws, as he'd have bet a set/two pair/strong K on the flop, and a weak K just doesn't play it this way. So I jam $250 into the $265 flop and feel pretty good about it. MP1 hews/haws/folds.
River: Jh
MP1: AQss
Me: 79hh
BB(ss): 78o
I drag a good-sized pot.
Preflop, 7-handed:
3 limps to Hero, on button, who raises to $12 with 79hh. SB, tired and whining, pushes all in for $25. I go to autofold, but the MP1 limper cold-calls, as does the MP2 limper. As they both cover me, and neither fold preflop (why did I raise again?), I call.
Flop: Ks 7s 3c (~$100 in the pot, effective stacks $250). It checks to me. While weak kings are of course in both MPs' ranges, they won't fold them here. I can't bet middle pair for value, and no better hands are folding (maybe 88/99/TT?) so I elect to check behind.
Turn: 6c. MP1 comes alive and bets $40 at the pot. MP2 instajams all in for $125. While I think MP1 has me beat, he shouldn't be strong if he checked the flop out of position, and he'll have to be REALLY strong to call an all-in by me with two other all-ins already in the pot. MP2's play isn't terrifying: earlier play by him has convinced me that most of his range here consists of strong draws, as he'd have bet a set/two pair/strong K on the flop, and a weak K just doesn't play it this way. So I jam $250 into the $265 flop and feel pretty good about it. MP1 hews/haws/folds.
River: Jh
MP1: AQss
Me: 79hh
BB(ss): 78o
I drag a good-sized pot.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Winstar Trip Report: 09/06/09
One will note that some time has elapsed between the trip and the report. Consequently, most of the details (valuable as they may be) have been lost due to my travels in Arkham Asylum. Seriously, the new Batman is a fucking ridiculously good game. The gameplay is good to great, the cutscenes are phenomenal, and the artwork is astonishing. We'll have to see whether it has replay value.
Wait, I'm supposed to be talking about poker. Back to that. Arrived at the casino with 3 buyins at 9pm. Waitlist was amazingly short - 8 people. And the Holy Grail of table selection fell upon me: THEY OPENED A NEW TABLE AND CALLED MY NAME.
I wonder if anybody realizes how valuable this is in a live setting? Nominally, it's ridiculous -- brand new donks buy in, and the more experienced players can eat up their money, and be relatively deepstacked by the time other good players get to the table. Getting in at the ground floor does the most for us in terms of the natural evolution of table dynamics, as retards don't survive long. So you can imagine that I was pretty psyched, and it showed.
I established myself as the verbal table captain ASAP, after identifying each players with tight/loose vs strong/weak, and mentally assessing the best way to attack these foes in position and out of position. And wow was I licking my chops when seeing some donkeys win 45bb pots with 95o and J6o in the early going.
Reality bit in when I realized that I was going on fucking TILT. WHY??!!
1) Rookie fucking players couldn't move the game along. They had to be constantly told that it was their turn, that no, they couldn't raise, that a straight loses to a flush, etc. One can only gently prompt the biggest fish even twice before the table catches on that you're a shark, so after a few smiling comments I had to stew in my own impatience.
2) Incompetent dealers that were holding up the game by regaling stories and teasing players instead of DEALING CARDS. It didn't help that this brand-new table lacked an automatic shuffler, slowing the pace down even more
3) I moved positions to sit behind the only big stack at the table (300bb), and he left 45 minutes later, leaving me with 125bb amongst 90-50bb stacks.
4) I couldn't catch a hand, which was the ONLY WAY I was going to get paid against a table of mostly loose-passive rookies that couldn't understand why their middle two pair was no good on a four flushed board.
So after 2.5 hours at this table (OMG AS SOON AS I MAKE TOP PAIR I'M GONNA BUST A FOOL!! damn, 72o again?!!), I busted over to a new spot with a competent dealer, automatic shuffler, deep stacks, and better players. ahhhh.
Sitting in the 1 seat (to the dealer's left), I resolve to move as quickly as possible, as I can't observe opponents! Naturally, I move behind a 500bb stack ASAP, and proceed to see an Asian LAG sit in my seat and THREE TIMES cold call a PF 3bet with AXs, get it all in on the flop vs a 3bettor, catch his flush, and run his $100 stack up to $800 in 45minutes. Nearly shit myself with the "omg i would have had those cards!" thought, but then I realized that I would NEVER have played them like that.
No real pots. Pretty much took down the few pots that I raised and fired Cbets with, and the combination of blinds + the times that I missed kept me floating at 125-150bbs for most of the night. Combination of the (incorrect) looseness of the 4 deep stacks at the table and cold decks kept me mostly in line.
However, by 2am, the usual insane limpfests had started. Compounding the situation was the New Guy at the table, who had won $2700 at 2/5nl earlier and was now open raising to $20 and 3betting to $40 with air at our table.
So after folding my evening away, I was sitting on a 200bb stack and find TdTc UTG. Balla. UTG (a math teacher TAG, decent player) with 400bb opens to $7, and I reraise to $35.
LatinoLAG calls in LP (100bb), New Guy calls in SB (400bb stack), UTG calls (400bb stack). With a pot of $140, we see a flop of 742r. Not a bad flop. In fact, I'd definitely be committed if I were in a HU pot, as this flop is the best possible flop I could hit, lacking a T. Factors for post-flop play
- SPR (excluding the LatinoLAG) is 2.6, which is perfect for an overpair (i have ~$370 behind).
- LatinoLag has $160 left. Obviously, if the LL gets all in with no other callers, I'm in there with him.
- New Guy (~$700) is ridiculously wide here. He just wants to play huge pots. Any suited, any pair, any broadway is good enough for him to cold call my 3bet. I CRUSH his range.
- UTG (~$760) is frustrated, and wants to catch New Guy and Latino Lag. He's a competent player, and understands the value of position. I expect him to 4bet QQ+ and maybe AK when he's OOP vs other deepstacks, so when he flats here I'm only really worried about JJ.
So really, what I want is to get the money in the pot as quickly as possible, as there isn't really a turn/river card that I want to see with this vulnerable overpair. Obviously, I would be treading much more carefully vs TAG-type players, but I felt that the ranges of the players I was involved with were WAYYYYY behind me.
So I fire $75 into the $140 pot. This bet leaves me (assuming 1 caller) with just a PSB behind, yet I'll have the option to fold if I get RR'd here. (although for the record I don't think I could EVER fold, given how much I had committed to the pot and the others' ranges. Maybe if I bet, got two callers and the last guy shoved over all of us, MAYBE).
LatinoLAG calls, New Guy calls, UTG grumbles and folds. Turn 6d, $365 pot, I have ~$290 remaining. I jam, LatinoLAG calls, New Guy folds, he shows A7o, river K, both folded players flip AKo, I drag monster pot (~$600). Now I'm trying to drum up a situation that I could have folded on, but OPs on a raggedy board when I've 3bet and gotten 3 callers? Dicey. Especially OOP.
That was pretty much it. Table broke shortly after and got filled up by fresh players, who started chatting me up and nearly licking their lips. Realizing my best was almost behind me (I was still playing my B game but felt imminent doom), I left with a $400 profit and drove back to Dallas.
Wait, I'm supposed to be talking about poker. Back to that. Arrived at the casino with 3 buyins at 9pm. Waitlist was amazingly short - 8 people. And the Holy Grail of table selection fell upon me: THEY OPENED A NEW TABLE AND CALLED MY NAME.
I wonder if anybody realizes how valuable this is in a live setting? Nominally, it's ridiculous -- brand new donks buy in, and the more experienced players can eat up their money, and be relatively deepstacked by the time other good players get to the table. Getting in at the ground floor does the most for us in terms of the natural evolution of table dynamics, as retards don't survive long. So you can imagine that I was pretty psyched, and it showed.
I established myself as the verbal table captain ASAP, after identifying each players with tight/loose vs strong/weak, and mentally assessing the best way to attack these foes in position and out of position. And wow was I licking my chops when seeing some donkeys win 45bb pots with 95o and J6o in the early going.
Reality bit in when I realized that I was going on fucking TILT. WHY??!!
1) Rookie fucking players couldn't move the game along. They had to be constantly told that it was their turn, that no, they couldn't raise, that a straight loses to a flush, etc. One can only gently prompt the biggest fish even twice before the table catches on that you're a shark, so after a few smiling comments I had to stew in my own impatience.
2) Incompetent dealers that were holding up the game by regaling stories and teasing players instead of DEALING CARDS. It didn't help that this brand-new table lacked an automatic shuffler, slowing the pace down even more
3) I moved positions to sit behind the only big stack at the table (300bb), and he left 45 minutes later, leaving me with 125bb amongst 90-50bb stacks.
4) I couldn't catch a hand, which was the ONLY WAY I was going to get paid against a table of mostly loose-passive rookies that couldn't understand why their middle two pair was no good on a four flushed board.
So after 2.5 hours at this table (OMG AS SOON AS I MAKE TOP PAIR I'M GONNA BUST A FOOL!! damn, 72o again?!!), I busted over to a new spot with a competent dealer, automatic shuffler, deep stacks, and better players. ahhhh.
Sitting in the 1 seat (to the dealer's left), I resolve to move as quickly as possible, as I can't observe opponents! Naturally, I move behind a 500bb stack ASAP, and proceed to see an Asian LAG sit in my seat and THREE TIMES cold call a PF 3bet with AXs, get it all in on the flop vs a 3bettor, catch his flush, and run his $100 stack up to $800 in 45minutes. Nearly shit myself with the "omg i would have had those cards!" thought, but then I realized that I would NEVER have played them like that.
No real pots. Pretty much took down the few pots that I raised and fired Cbets with, and the combination of blinds + the times that I missed kept me floating at 125-150bbs for most of the night. Combination of the (incorrect) looseness of the 4 deep stacks at the table and cold decks kept me mostly in line.
However, by 2am, the usual insane limpfests had started. Compounding the situation was the New Guy at the table, who had won $2700 at 2/5nl earlier and was now open raising to $20 and 3betting to $40 with air at our table.
So after folding my evening away, I was sitting on a 200bb stack and find TdTc UTG. Balla. UTG (a math teacher TAG, decent player) with 400bb opens to $7, and I reraise to $35.
LatinoLAG calls in LP (100bb), New Guy calls in SB (400bb stack), UTG calls (400bb stack). With a pot of $140, we see a flop of 742r. Not a bad flop. In fact, I'd definitely be committed if I were in a HU pot, as this flop is the best possible flop I could hit, lacking a T. Factors for post-flop play
- SPR (excluding the LatinoLAG) is 2.6, which is perfect for an overpair (i have ~$370 behind).
- LatinoLag has $160 left. Obviously, if the LL gets all in with no other callers, I'm in there with him.
- New Guy (~$700) is ridiculously wide here. He just wants to play huge pots. Any suited, any pair, any broadway is good enough for him to cold call my 3bet. I CRUSH his range.
- UTG (~$760) is frustrated, and wants to catch New Guy and Latino Lag. He's a competent player, and understands the value of position. I expect him to 4bet QQ+ and maybe AK when he's OOP vs other deepstacks, so when he flats here I'm only really worried about JJ.
So really, what I want is to get the money in the pot as quickly as possible, as there isn't really a turn/river card that I want to see with this vulnerable overpair. Obviously, I would be treading much more carefully vs TAG-type players, but I felt that the ranges of the players I was involved with were WAYYYYY behind me.
So I fire $75 into the $140 pot. This bet leaves me (assuming 1 caller) with just a PSB behind, yet I'll have the option to fold if I get RR'd here. (although for the record I don't think I could EVER fold, given how much I had committed to the pot and the others' ranges. Maybe if I bet, got two callers and the last guy shoved over all of us, MAYBE).
LatinoLAG calls, New Guy calls, UTG grumbles and folds. Turn 6d, $365 pot, I have ~$290 remaining. I jam, LatinoLAG calls, New Guy folds, he shows A7o, river K, both folded players flip AKo, I drag monster pot (~$600). Now I'm trying to drum up a situation that I could have folded on, but OPs on a raggedy board when I've 3bet and gotten 3 callers? Dicey. Especially OOP.
That was pretty much it. Table broke shortly after and got filled up by fresh players, who started chatting me up and nearly licking their lips. Realizing my best was almost behind me (I was still playing my B game but felt imminent doom), I left with a $400 profit and drove back to Dallas.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Winstar Trip Report: 082109
Shit was hot.
Things That Went Well
The Mental Game: Relaxed, excited, and happy. The realization that I was rock solid came in the following hand:
I open Js9s in UTG+3 (with a $400 stack) to $10, and get two callers downhill. The BB checks to me on a Jc9s8c flop, I fire out $25. Folds back to the BB, a loose passive older player with a $200 stack (CALL!!), and the others fold. After weighting his considerable calling range PF to draws and weak J-hands based on the flop action, we see a turn.
6d. Not too bad.
He checks, I fire for $75 and he thinks and calls again. River 7s. He looks at me wide-eyed, and says, "I check...you can bet if you want," and before the second phrase is out of his mouth, I'm checking my top two back to him and getting shown KdTd. He rakes in the ~$225 pot, getting some snarky comments from the peanut gallery about 'pot odds', to which he stalks off for a smoke break.
As he leaves, I smile and say to them, "That's fine. I was ahead the whole way. I WANT him to play exactly like that," and I mean it. A slight flinch, a ding to the scarlet towers, but back on the balance beam straightaways. This is when I felt invincible.
Another note came from a TAGfish-type who liked to berate people and show off his knowledge (poor as it was). In a straddled, bloated pot, I called his C-bet on a T72r board with ATs in position, caught an A on the turn, and shoved over his turn lead. I put my head down as he started going over his thought process out loud, ending with him folding his JJ face up (getting 4:1 pot odds on my last $70, lol).
As he'd done before, he started to berate, telling me that I needed to work on my handreading if I was going to be calling his bets on the flop when he OBVIOUSLY HAD AN OVERPAIR. Unfortunately, I told him that I had his chips, he didn't know my holdings, and berating people lacked class. Then I snidely said his thought processes were wrong, but he still needed to practice them until he wasn't saying everything out loud like a sixth-grader doing his multiplication tables.
This didn't go over well.
I had to make sure that I forgave the guy before I lost my mental balance again. This didn't involve kissing his ass or shaking his hand, but understanding where he was coming from, and chastising myself internally for getting drawn into his tilty little world. By buying into his "i'm right" mindset, I ended up making a withdrawal from this man's Personal Checking Account of Tilt. We don't need investments like this.
After sending him back what was rightfully his (unbeknownst to him), I was free to focus on the whole table and not on a personal nemesis. Cue the end of the "Fuck That Guy" story.
Technical Stuff
I adjusted well. Didn't get involved in the everlasting family limpfests that happen late-night. Kept my image squeaky clean with zigs. ONLY ZIGS. Once a few of the better, more observant players saw me make +EV plays and drag pots, only then did I start to zag. Manipulating my image (and playing directly to the left of the aforementioned loudmouth that BROADCAST my image to the table) let me pick up some pots without the benefit of premium holdings...because really, we can wait all day for those.
My experiments in limpfests OOP indicate that players just won't fucking fold to Cbets late night; they start to chase. So I've start checkraising the everloving fuck out of the loose-passive ones, who aren't likely to come back over the top with their draws and TPWK-type hands. This resulted in some good profit, but we also have to realize that I ran into the optimal part of their range, and that my player-type assessment had to be spot on. So it's both luck- and strong-mental-game-dependent.
I also started to abuse players' bluffs. Case in point:
I check my option in the BB with Qc9c, creating a 5-way pot. Flop comes Qs3c5s. I lead for $10, and get a call from the loose passive older player, others fold. Turn comes 8h. I lead against for $25 into the $30 pot, and he calls. River hits with an Ah.
Huh. All draws missed. And I have him (based on prior play, he'll raise to protect his Qx / two pair / sets) again on a missed draw. So I check. And he fires $50 out.
Damn. Cold feet. I tell him out loud, "The only hand I'm afraid of has the Ac," and call. And he shows Tc6c, and the entire table becomes a little more afraid of me. And my avalanche gains strength, and my footsteps rain terror, and my hands rake chips, until it's time to change tables again, now with a $1k stack.
Quitting Well
My last seat, 5:30am. Got here at 9pm. I'm sorta tired, but high on octane. This last table has bubbly people with HUGE stacks. Directly to my left, a $350 stack, then a $1.5k stack, then a $6k stack. AT 1/2 NL. WTF. Two 100bb stacks finish off the table at my right, and I take my spot, knowing that it will be EXTREMELY DIFFICULT to establish the loose-aggressive image necessary to succeed with super-deep stacks, out of position and only at 75% efficiency.
Fortune smiles on me. I flop a flush and liquidate one of the 100bb stacks who blearily gets it all in on a mono board with the NFD. Blammo. The other 100bb stack loses 25bb in a confrontation with the Big Stack, then 4bets all in PF, HU with me.
She's tired, loose, and Asian (sorry baby). I call with AhJh for 80bb, and run out a KJJAT board to crush her QQ. And that's it. I'm done. That's a fine call for 40bb, but NOT 100bb, as my 'read' is over only 20 minutes and 5 pots, just one which I'm involved in. I've only got one foot on the balance beam, but I got lucky...time to go.
Gas to get to Winstar: $10
Money used to bankroll: $600
Taking people's money: cool
Crushing people's souls: PRICELESS
Things That Went Well
The Mental Game: Relaxed, excited, and happy. The realization that I was rock solid came in the following hand:
I open Js9s in UTG+3 (with a $400 stack) to $10, and get two callers downhill. The BB checks to me on a Jc9s8c flop, I fire out $25. Folds back to the BB, a loose passive older player with a $200 stack (CALL!!), and the others fold. After weighting his considerable calling range PF to draws and weak J-hands based on the flop action, we see a turn.
6d. Not too bad.
He checks, I fire for $75 and he thinks and calls again. River 7s. He looks at me wide-eyed, and says, "I check...you can bet if you want," and before the second phrase is out of his mouth, I'm checking my top two back to him and getting shown KdTd. He rakes in the ~$225 pot, getting some snarky comments from the peanut gallery about 'pot odds', to which he stalks off for a smoke break.
As he leaves, I smile and say to them, "That's fine. I was ahead the whole way. I WANT him to play exactly like that," and I mean it. A slight flinch, a ding to the scarlet towers, but back on the balance beam straightaways. This is when I felt invincible.
Another note came from a TAGfish-type who liked to berate people and show off his knowledge (poor as it was). In a straddled, bloated pot, I called his C-bet on a T72r board with ATs in position, caught an A on the turn, and shoved over his turn lead. I put my head down as he started going over his thought process out loud, ending with him folding his JJ face up (getting 4:1 pot odds on my last $70, lol).
As he'd done before, he started to berate, telling me that I needed to work on my handreading if I was going to be calling his bets on the flop when he OBVIOUSLY HAD AN OVERPAIR. Unfortunately, I told him that I had his chips, he didn't know my holdings, and berating people lacked class. Then I snidely said his thought processes were wrong, but he still needed to practice them until he wasn't saying everything out loud like a sixth-grader doing his multiplication tables.
This didn't go over well.
I had to make sure that I forgave the guy before I lost my mental balance again. This didn't involve kissing his ass or shaking his hand, but understanding where he was coming from, and chastising myself internally for getting drawn into his tilty little world. By buying into his "i'm right" mindset, I ended up making a withdrawal from this man's Personal Checking Account of Tilt. We don't need investments like this.
After sending him back what was rightfully his (unbeknownst to him), I was free to focus on the whole table and not on a personal nemesis. Cue the end of the "Fuck That Guy" story.
Technical Stuff
I adjusted well. Didn't get involved in the everlasting family limpfests that happen late-night. Kept my image squeaky clean with zigs. ONLY ZIGS. Once a few of the better, more observant players saw me make +EV plays and drag pots, only then did I start to zag. Manipulating my image (and playing directly to the left of the aforementioned loudmouth that BROADCAST my image to the table) let me pick up some pots without the benefit of premium holdings...because really, we can wait all day for those.
My experiments in limpfests OOP indicate that players just won't fucking fold to Cbets late night; they start to chase. So I've start checkraising the everloving fuck out of the loose-passive ones, who aren't likely to come back over the top with their draws and TPWK-type hands. This resulted in some good profit, but we also have to realize that I ran into the optimal part of their range, and that my player-type assessment had to be spot on. So it's both luck- and strong-mental-game-dependent.
I also started to abuse players' bluffs. Case in point:
I check my option in the BB with Qc9c, creating a 5-way pot. Flop comes Qs3c5s. I lead for $10, and get a call from the loose passive older player, others fold. Turn comes 8h. I lead against for $25 into the $30 pot, and he calls. River hits with an Ah.
Huh. All draws missed. And I have him (based on prior play, he'll raise to protect his Qx / two pair / sets) again on a missed draw. So I check. And he fires $50 out.
Damn. Cold feet. I tell him out loud, "The only hand I'm afraid of has the Ac," and call. And he shows Tc6c, and the entire table becomes a little more afraid of me. And my avalanche gains strength, and my footsteps rain terror, and my hands rake chips, until it's time to change tables again, now with a $1k stack.
Quitting Well
My last seat, 5:30am. Got here at 9pm. I'm sorta tired, but high on octane. This last table has bubbly people with HUGE stacks. Directly to my left, a $350 stack, then a $1.5k stack, then a $6k stack. AT 1/2 NL. WTF. Two 100bb stacks finish off the table at my right, and I take my spot, knowing that it will be EXTREMELY DIFFICULT to establish the loose-aggressive image necessary to succeed with super-deep stacks, out of position and only at 75% efficiency.
Fortune smiles on me. I flop a flush and liquidate one of the 100bb stacks who blearily gets it all in on a mono board with the NFD. Blammo. The other 100bb stack loses 25bb in a confrontation with the Big Stack, then 4bets all in PF, HU with me.
She's tired, loose, and Asian (sorry baby). I call with AhJh for 80bb, and run out a KJJAT board to crush her QQ. And that's it. I'm done. That's a fine call for 40bb, but NOT 100bb, as my 'read' is over only 20 minutes and 5 pots, just one which I'm involved in. I've only got one foot on the balance beam, but I got lucky...time to go.
Gas to get to Winstar: $10
Money used to bankroll: $600
Taking people's money: cool
Crushing people's souls: PRICELESS
Saturday, July 25, 2009
food for thought
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/117/medium-high-stakes-full-ring/cleaning-house-live-1-2-2-5-nl-369739/
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
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