Friday, February 27, 2009
Another Leak
I've noticed that I don't make the best use of stats.
Meaning that there's a disconnect between: recognizing that the guy on my left has a 57% VPIP and actually putting that on a range of hands.
i.e. 57% VPIP means any AX, any suited, any pair, down to 1-gap nonsuited connectors.
I don't really see how I can be making +EV decisions without this information?? I mean, whether we are earning value or not in a hand depends on the play we're making against the opponent's perceived range, right?
ie I have bottom set vs opponent's fd, IP, 100bb deep. I'm nearly 75% on flop, assuming he has a FD, 5& vs bigger set, 85% over a bigger set, 96% vs TPTK, etc.
I think right now, I'm operating qualitatively (he's loose, he's tight, he's weak) as opposed to quantitatively (he plays 45% of his hands from this position, that means he could have { hands that = {set/2pr/FD/TPTK}).
Need to keep in mind that putting somebody on TPTK is inferior to putting them on exactly two cards. Had too many episodes pop up lately when turns/rivers improved opponent hands and I didn't account for that when I put them "on a FD", and the river A ended up giving them something more than that. Get specific, OGC.
So what's the best way to do this? Start practicing %s with PokerStove? I was wondering about reviewing some of my hands with PStove open, and putting a range of hands into it when I looked at them, them comparing my hands and adjusting as the hand went on.
Might give me a better idea of whether or not I'm +EV. And it will definitely help focus decisions on "is this a good decision NOW" vs "What play will help me win this pot?". Process-based decisions.....
...ok, coffee-rant over. Enjoy your Friday.
Meaning that there's a disconnect between: recognizing that the guy on my left has a 57% VPIP and actually putting that on a range of hands.
i.e. 57% VPIP means any AX, any suited, any pair, down to 1-gap nonsuited connectors.
I don't really see how I can be making +EV decisions without this information?? I mean, whether we are earning value or not in a hand depends on the play we're making against the opponent's perceived range, right?
ie I have bottom set vs opponent's fd, IP, 100bb deep. I'm nearly 75% on flop, assuming he has a FD, 5& vs bigger set, 85% over a bigger set, 96% vs TPTK, etc.
I think right now, I'm operating qualitatively (he's loose, he's tight, he's weak) as opposed to quantitatively (he plays 45% of his hands from this position, that means he could have { hands that = {set/2pr/FD/TPTK}).
Need to keep in mind that putting somebody on TPTK is inferior to putting them on exactly two cards. Had too many episodes pop up lately when turns/rivers improved opponent hands and I didn't account for that when I put them "on a FD", and the river A ended up giving them something more than that. Get specific, OGC.
So what's the best way to do this? Start practicing %s with PokerStove? I was wondering about reviewing some of my hands with PStove open, and putting a range of hands into it when I looked at them, them comparing my hands and adjusting as the hand went on.
Might give me a better idea of whether or not I'm +EV. And it will definitely help focus decisions on "is this a good decision NOW" vs "What play will help me win this pot?". Process-based decisions.....
...ok, coffee-rant over. Enjoy your Friday.
# posted by OneGreenChip : 10:35 AM
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you need to listen to ryan fee(s?) talk about stats / hud: http://pokercast.twoplustwo.com/ episode 58, 48:20ish
i almost disagree with your assessment of getting specific, but i think i know where you're going. ultimately, you dont wanna just say: he has TPTK, you want to call that hand out, and other clusterings of hands. get their range, and narrow it down when they're making decisions later -- that's what's going to help you become a better hand reader. also, dont put your own logic on other oppoenents. just because you wouldnt call in a spot with TPTK on the turn doesn't mean he wouldnt. but again, that's why we play less tables so we can make those reads.
i feel like against someone who's playing 60% of their cards, putting them on a range on the flop is almost pointless. if they're folding a lot, bet bet bet. then start to better figure out a range after he takes his action. i mean, it's useful to see his stats / behavioral tendencies before hands (like you dont wnana be blasting away at pots with marginal hands if he's going to CR super often and you're going to have to fold), but just put your mental energy where it's best used, i think.
and yes, start practicing with pokerstove. remember, REM.
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i almost disagree with your assessment of getting specific, but i think i know where you're going. ultimately, you dont wanna just say: he has TPTK, you want to call that hand out, and other clusterings of hands. get their range, and narrow it down when they're making decisions later -- that's what's going to help you become a better hand reader. also, dont put your own logic on other oppoenents. just because you wouldnt call in a spot with TPTK on the turn doesn't mean he wouldnt. but again, that's why we play less tables so we can make those reads.
i feel like against someone who's playing 60% of their cards, putting them on a range on the flop is almost pointless. if they're folding a lot, bet bet bet. then start to better figure out a range after he takes his action. i mean, it's useful to see his stats / behavioral tendencies before hands (like you dont wnana be blasting away at pots with marginal hands if he's going to CR super often and you're going to have to fold), but just put your mental energy where it's best used, i think.
and yes, start practicing with pokerstove. remember, REM.
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