Wednesday, November 14, 2007
2000 Hands Later
Hey
I was playing excessively badly in the end of October. I decided to take a break, and not play until I had finished Professional No-Limit Hold 'Em. Err, bought it. Heh.
2/3s of the way through right now, and I really like it. I'm dubious about the value of SPRs as of yet -- I think people are pretty aware when they're in danger of committing their stack based on pre-flop action -- but I really enjoyed the Target SPR section re: how certain hands play better in terms of SPR ranges. The REM section is also invaluable. I plan on copying a certain bad-luck player in addressing my hands for Range, Equity, and Maximizing.
Hopefully by hardlining a mathematical approach now, I'll have a better 'feel' for it at the tables. Which is basically what people do for pot odds and implied odds right now...you have a good idea based on bet sized; certainly nobody is number crunching at the table. Let's do the number crunching here, now, and try to approximate later on, in the thick of the action.
Almost makes me want to hide my PAHud, and see how my assessment pan out against the hard data. Certainly, I'm always cognizant that the tools we use online to play retard our live skills. I'm not knocking PAHud, it's excellent, and a necessity for multitabling. One simply cannot keep track of the tendencies of 50 villains. Possibly the next time I'm single-tabling, I'll start hiding my stats, and rely on the pop-up window. Good plan.
Back to PNLHE. Since I've gotten the book, I've had a +1 BI day, and yesterday. God, yesterday. I sat a table with two big donks, and a shit-talking, positively tilted LAG player with a 700BB stack. Need me a piece of that action!
Here's a particular play of mine that I'm not sure about.
Hero: 101BB, Kd Ah
V1: 37BB
V2: 153BB
V3: 700BB
V3 raises 3.5BB. Hero reraises to 12BB. V1 reraises all-in, 37BB. V2 folds. V3 calls 37BB all-in. Hero raises 101BB all-in. V3 calls 101BB all in.
V3 shows TT, V1 shows 55, Hero shows AKo, board all blanks, V3 wins 239BB (- rake).
So did I make a bad call?
Ranges PF
V3(initial): 22+, ATo+, KQo+, QJo+ / V1: 55+, A7s+ / V3(final): 55-QQ, AQo+, KQs
Final Equity
(Hero: 35.96% vs V3: 36.96% vs V1: 28.01%)
Pretty goddamn close. Let's see what happens when I confine their ranges to pocket pairs only.
Ranges PF: V3(final): 77-QQ / V1: 55+ / Hero: AhKd
Final Equity: 33.3% / 32.3% / 34.3%
again, pretty goddamn close.
My ROI isn't awesome. 1/3 of the time, +239BB. 2/3 of the time, -101BB. So avg ROI is 36%. Invest 101BB to gain 36BB. Worth it?
Look at the sequence. UTG raise, I 3bet, SS 4bets all-in, UTG coldcalls (uh oh). I love my play with AA/KK, and that's what I was representing. Plenty of fold equity there, as V3 is superdeep.
Goddamn. This is too tough to do at work right now. Let's just say that I am ambivalent about my play, love the V1's play, and mildly dislike V3's play. He was definitely tiliting positively, hitting everything in sight, and counting on hitting everything. I guess I'd do it again.
I was playing excessively badly in the end of October. I decided to take a break, and not play until I had finished Professional No-Limit Hold 'Em. Err, bought it. Heh.
2/3s of the way through right now, and I really like it. I'm dubious about the value of SPRs as of yet -- I think people are pretty aware when they're in danger of committing their stack based on pre-flop action -- but I really enjoyed the Target SPR section re: how certain hands play better in terms of SPR ranges. The REM section is also invaluable. I plan on copying a certain bad-luck player in addressing my hands for Range, Equity, and Maximizing.
Hopefully by hardlining a mathematical approach now, I'll have a better 'feel' for it at the tables. Which is basically what people do for pot odds and implied odds right now...you have a good idea based on bet sized; certainly nobody is number crunching at the table. Let's do the number crunching here, now, and try to approximate later on, in the thick of the action.
Almost makes me want to hide my PAHud, and see how my assessment pan out against the hard data. Certainly, I'm always cognizant that the tools we use online to play retard our live skills. I'm not knocking PAHud, it's excellent, and a necessity for multitabling. One simply cannot keep track of the tendencies of 50 villains. Possibly the next time I'm single-tabling, I'll start hiding my stats, and rely on the pop-up window. Good plan.
Back to PNLHE. Since I've gotten the book, I've had a +1 BI day, and yesterday. God, yesterday. I sat a table with two big donks, and a shit-talking, positively tilted LAG player with a 700BB stack. Need me a piece of that action!
Here's a particular play of mine that I'm not sure about.
Hero: 101BB, Kd Ah
V1: 37BB
V2: 153BB
V3: 700BB
V3 raises 3.5BB. Hero reraises to 12BB. V1 reraises all-in, 37BB. V2 folds. V3 calls 37BB all-in. Hero raises 101BB all-in. V3 calls 101BB all in.
V3 shows TT, V1 shows 55, Hero shows AKo, board all blanks, V3 wins 239BB (- rake).
So did I make a bad call?
Ranges PF
V3(initial): 22+, ATo+, KQo+, QJo+ / V1: 55+, A7s+ / V3(final): 55-QQ, AQo+, KQs
Final Equity
(Hero: 35.96% vs V3: 36.96% vs V1: 28.01%)
Pretty goddamn close. Let's see what happens when I confine their ranges to pocket pairs only.
Ranges PF: V3(final): 77-QQ / V1: 55+ / Hero: AhKd
Final Equity: 33.3% / 32.3% / 34.3%
again, pretty goddamn close.
My ROI isn't awesome. 1/3 of the time, +239BB. 2/3 of the time, -101BB. So avg ROI is 36%. Invest 101BB to gain 36BB. Worth it?
Look at the sequence. UTG raise, I 3bet, SS 4bets all-in, UTG coldcalls (uh oh). I love my play with AA/KK, and that's what I was representing. Plenty of fold equity there, as V3 is superdeep.
Goddamn. This is too tough to do at work right now. Let's just say that I am ambivalent about my play, love the V1's play, and mildly dislike V3's play. He was definitely tiliting positively, hitting everything in sight, and counting on hitting everything. I guess I'd do it again.
# posted by OneGreenChip : 1:43 PM
Comments:
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Hmmm. This is a really tough problem to calculate as what you've looked at doesn't encompass fold equity: meaning, if you folded that TT, you and shortie are freerolling for his equity.
Here's where it might get tricky in the future, if villain is TAG and he thinks you'll be overshoving in this spot, he'll likely JUST CALL here with AA/KK as well. I've gotten fucked a couple times when I'm like "OH, AK!!!!" and they flip monsters.
Here, I like your shove a lot. I think this jackass is calling in this spot with AQ and you're flipping against the rest of everything else. If he has AA/KK here, it's sort of a cooler given his aggression. Good shove. NOTICE how you might have to play this differently vs. a TAG though.
As far as stats and such: I don't like it. Expanding the realm of PAHUD goes way WAY beyond VPIP / PFR / Agg factor. Basing future actions on potential flops / scenarios combined with other stats is really key: you save yourself bets on earlier streets, learn where you can plan to double barrel, etc. It's not just having the stats in your dropdown that helps, but it's utilizing them and leveraging the data. Dice consistently has shown this through his actions ("okay, his fold continuation bet is 15%, but we can see that his call turn bet is 85%, so he's a good candidate to bet and double barrel on a good board" or "here, we don't want to 3-bet our opponent out of position, because his Call C-bet is so high, he's going to be floating us a ton and it's likely that our hand can't stand it").
Think about that stuff.
Here's where it might get tricky in the future, if villain is TAG and he thinks you'll be overshoving in this spot, he'll likely JUST CALL here with AA/KK as well. I've gotten fucked a couple times when I'm like "OH, AK!!!!" and they flip monsters.
Here, I like your shove a lot. I think this jackass is calling in this spot with AQ and you're flipping against the rest of everything else. If he has AA/KK here, it's sort of a cooler given his aggression. Good shove. NOTICE how you might have to play this differently vs. a TAG though.
As far as stats and such: I don't like it. Expanding the realm of PAHUD goes way WAY beyond VPIP / PFR / Agg factor. Basing future actions on potential flops / scenarios combined with other stats is really key: you save yourself bets on earlier streets, learn where you can plan to double barrel, etc. It's not just having the stats in your dropdown that helps, but it's utilizing them and leveraging the data. Dice consistently has shown this through his actions ("okay, his fold continuation bet is 15%, but we can see that his call turn bet is 85%, so he's a good candidate to bet and double barrel on a good board" or "here, we don't want to 3-bet our opponent out of position, because his Call C-bet is so high, he's going to be floating us a ton and it's likely that our hand can't stand it").
Think about that stuff.
Oh, and I'm not unlucky, I just have a limited understanding of the game. When I get screwed, I attribute that to lack of luck.
My downswings are worse/longer due to lack of skill. Gotta learn more, that's all.
My downswings are worse/longer due to lack of skill. Gotta learn more, that's all.
also, re: stats.
I'm not thinking of NOT using them. Just more in the line of: make decision based on memory/observance 1st. Double check w/ stats. Then act.
Rather than: check stats, act. All skills need to be honed, and I think we can get lazy in relying on PokerAceHud to do the work for us.
I don't plan on cutting off that information flow, but I want to be observing actively and building player images, and testing that ability against PAHud.
I'm not thinking of NOT using them. Just more in the line of: make decision based on memory/observance 1st. Double check w/ stats. Then act.
Rather than: check stats, act. All skills need to be honed, and I think we can get lazy in relying on PokerAceHud to do the work for us.
I don't plan on cutting off that information flow, but I want to be observing actively and building player images, and testing that ability against PAHud.
Doh. Forgot. :-)
Okay, THEN that's good; very good. Especially at mid-stakes where play depends on the flow versus just the stats, this skill will serve you well eventually.
Read Dice's blog for what I mean.
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Okay, THEN that's good; very good. Especially at mid-stakes where play depends on the flow versus just the stats, this skill will serve you well eventually.
Read Dice's blog for what I mean.
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