Friday, February 27, 2009
Another Leak
I've noticed that I don't make the best use of stats.
Meaning that there's a disconnect between: recognizing that the guy on my left has a 57% VPIP and actually putting that on a range of hands.
i.e. 57% VPIP means any AX, any suited, any pair, down to 1-gap nonsuited connectors.
I don't really see how I can be making +EV decisions without this information?? I mean, whether we are earning value or not in a hand depends on the play we're making against the opponent's perceived range, right?
ie I have bottom set vs opponent's fd, IP, 100bb deep. I'm nearly 75% on flop, assuming he has a FD, 5& vs bigger set, 85% over a bigger set, 96% vs TPTK, etc.
I think right now, I'm operating qualitatively (he's loose, he's tight, he's weak) as opposed to quantitatively (he plays 45% of his hands from this position, that means he could have { hands that = {set/2pr/FD/TPTK}).
Need to keep in mind that putting somebody on TPTK is inferior to putting them on exactly two cards. Had too many episodes pop up lately when turns/rivers improved opponent hands and I didn't account for that when I put them "on a FD", and the river A ended up giving them something more than that. Get specific, OGC.
So what's the best way to do this? Start practicing %s with PokerStove? I was wondering about reviewing some of my hands with PStove open, and putting a range of hands into it when I looked at them, them comparing my hands and adjusting as the hand went on.
Might give me a better idea of whether or not I'm +EV. And it will definitely help focus decisions on "is this a good decision NOW" vs "What play will help me win this pot?". Process-based decisions.....
...ok, coffee-rant over. Enjoy your Friday.
Meaning that there's a disconnect between: recognizing that the guy on my left has a 57% VPIP and actually putting that on a range of hands.
i.e. 57% VPIP means any AX, any suited, any pair, down to 1-gap nonsuited connectors.
I don't really see how I can be making +EV decisions without this information?? I mean, whether we are earning value or not in a hand depends on the play we're making against the opponent's perceived range, right?
ie I have bottom set vs opponent's fd, IP, 100bb deep. I'm nearly 75% on flop, assuming he has a FD, 5& vs bigger set, 85% over a bigger set, 96% vs TPTK, etc.
I think right now, I'm operating qualitatively (he's loose, he's tight, he's weak) as opposed to quantitatively (he plays 45% of his hands from this position, that means he could have { hands that = {set/2pr/FD/TPTK}).
Need to keep in mind that putting somebody on TPTK is inferior to putting them on exactly two cards. Had too many episodes pop up lately when turns/rivers improved opponent hands and I didn't account for that when I put them "on a FD", and the river A ended up giving them something more than that. Get specific, OGC.
So what's the best way to do this? Start practicing %s with PokerStove? I was wondering about reviewing some of my hands with PStove open, and putting a range of hands into it when I looked at them, them comparing my hands and adjusting as the hand went on.
Might give me a better idea of whether or not I'm +EV. And it will definitely help focus decisions on "is this a good decision NOW" vs "What play will help me win this pot?". Process-based decisions.....
...ok, coffee-rant over. Enjoy your Friday.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
On the subject of Tilt
So
Today I shattered some personal misconceptions about tilt.
Old Paradigm: Tilt is when I'm pissed off and not thinking clearly!!! HOW COULD I LOSE WITH A STRAIGHT FLUSH DRAW VS TOP PAIR TOP KICKER!!! RAAAAR.
New Paradigm: Tilt is when I've ceased analyzing myself or my opponents.
Here's the difference: prior to recognizing this, I would set out a 3 hour block to play. Let's do this. 3 hours. I can handle this, I can focus this long. This is the time I've set up to play, and I'm GETTING THESE HOURS IN.
Well, at some point, tilt happens. Maybe a fish that I've been setting up stacks me. Maybe I'm getting 3-bet relentlessly by a LAG on my immediate left. Maybe I'm tired and my best poker is behind me, but I'm not ready to quit.
POW. Here we are again.
The surprising part: it has NOTHING TO DO with my currently emotional state (happy/sad/angry). Nor is it entirely dependent on my win/loss for the session. It's a state of mind, determining process, not outcome.
We can easily recognize extremely negative tilt: My ears are red and flushed. My face feels hot, and my neck is tense. That's difficult, but not impossible to get away from, because I have physical tells on being upset. What I didn't recognize before the relationship between emotional state and logical state!
So when I was winning pots through a combination of skill/luck, with a positive mental state, yet not thinking analytically....I was never aware of the situation.
Of course, I would lose a huge pot, and point to THAT MOMENT, as when I Tilted. No. Not at all. Actually, half an hour earlier, I removed my proverbial seatbelt, and then complained when a car hit me out of nowhere.
If I'm not tilting, I recognize that I got my money in as a favorite with the straight flush draw, shrug it off, and keep on playing. If not, my emotional state drops out in addition to my lack of logical thought. Bankroll bloodbath.
Next:
How best to recognize the absence of analytical thought? Penny Arcade, as always, is best here. I'll have to work on a solution of my own.
more later
-OGC
Today I shattered some personal misconceptions about tilt.
Old Paradigm: Tilt is when I'm pissed off and not thinking clearly!!! HOW COULD I LOSE WITH A STRAIGHT FLUSH DRAW VS TOP PAIR TOP KICKER!!! RAAAAR.
New Paradigm: Tilt is when I've ceased analyzing myself or my opponents.
Here's the difference: prior to recognizing this, I would set out a 3 hour block to play. Let's do this. 3 hours. I can handle this, I can focus this long. This is the time I've set up to play, and I'm GETTING THESE HOURS IN.
Well, at some point, tilt happens. Maybe a fish that I've been setting up stacks me. Maybe I'm getting 3-bet relentlessly by a LAG on my immediate left. Maybe I'm tired and my best poker is behind me, but I'm not ready to quit.
POW. Here we are again.
The surprising part: it has NOTHING TO DO with my currently emotional state (happy/sad/angry). Nor is it entirely dependent on my win/loss for the session. It's a state of mind, determining process, not outcome.
We can easily recognize extremely negative tilt: My ears are red and flushed. My face feels hot, and my neck is tense. That's difficult, but not impossible to get away from, because I have physical tells on being upset. What I didn't recognize before the relationship between emotional state and logical state!
So when I was winning pots through a combination of skill/luck, with a positive mental state, yet not thinking analytically....I was never aware of the situation.
Of course, I would lose a huge pot, and point to THAT MOMENT, as when I Tilted. No. Not at all. Actually, half an hour earlier, I removed my proverbial seatbelt, and then complained when a car hit me out of nowhere.
If I'm not tilting, I recognize that I got my money in as a favorite with the straight flush draw, shrug it off, and keep on playing. If not, my emotional state drops out in addition to my lack of logical thought. Bankroll bloodbath.
Next:
How best to recognize the absence of analytical thought? Penny Arcade, as always, is best here. I'll have to work on a solution of my own.
more later
-OGC
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